Subscription growth snapshot
A SaaS product has 320 customers at $19 ARPU, expects 54 new customers and estimates 4% monthly churn.
- Current customers: 320
- ARPU: $19
- New customers: 54
- Monthly churn: 4%
Subscriptions
SaaS MRR Calculator
Estimate monthly recurring revenue, churn impact and next-month MRR for a subscription product.
Subscriptions
SaaS MRR Calculator
Use this for SaaS, membership, paid community or subscription content ideas. It highlights how churn changes the growth picture.
How to use this calculator
Start with conservative inputs, copy the result, then test a best-case and worst-case version. For production decisions, compare the estimate against actual accounting, analytics and payment data.
Best used for
Use this to model subscription revenue growth when new customers and churn both affect next month's revenue base.
Formula
MRR measures recurring monthly revenue before one-time fees, refunds and payment timing differences. Modeling churn beside new customers shows whether growth is actually compounding or being absorbed by cancellations.
Formula
MRR = customers * ARPU. Next MRR = (customers - churned + new customers) * ARPU.
Example
How to read the result
- Next-month MRR above current MRR means acquisition is outpacing churn in the scenario.
- Churn has a compounding effect because lost customers reduce future recurring revenue.
- ARPU changes from upgrades and downgrades should be modeled separately for mature SaaS products.
Common mistakes
- Treating MRR as cash collected when annual plans, refunds and failed payments distort cash flow.
- Ignoring churn while forecasting new customer growth.
- Using blended ARPU without checking whether new customers pay less than existing customers.
FAQ
Does MRR equal cash collected?
Not always. Annual plans, failed payments, refunds, upgrades and billing timing can make cash collection different from MRR.
Why does churn matter so much?
Churn reduces the customer base that creates recurring revenue. Even strong acquisition can look weak if cancellations are high.
Should expansion revenue be included?
For a more advanced model, include upgrades, downgrades and expansion separately. This MVP focuses on a simple customer count and ARPU scenario.
Important limits
- MRR is not cash flow. Annual plans, refunds and failed payments need separate handling.
- Churn estimates are sensitive; test low, base and high churn scenarios.